Connections

Have you ever heard of James Burke, how about his 'Connections'?  If the answer is not, you are not well connected.  Don't panic, it may not be that important anyway.  Connections, 顧名思義, is from a to b to q to y etc.  The historical event and fact can be connected with others with some reasonable or wild logic.  In Mandarin, it is called '東拉西推,南觀北聞,上擠下通,湊在一起'.  I myself sometime love to do the trick and find it one of my hobby.  Here is one example.

去年十一月,返台參加五十週年 Reunion, 在高雄捷運美麗島站參觀頗富別開生面的天花板---'光之穹頂'. 地鐵站五顏六色的光片在你頭上展現藝術的光輝,頗有令人張目結舌之感. 我當時在想,如果吳振和捐一些 LED 面板加上 interface 使 display programmable, 那會更有意義和價值. 想想每天可展覽不同的穹頂,太有幻想和創意了. 吳振和銷售的 LED 說不定也可以取代燈泡而成為 'Bulb of the 21st Century'.  After making ton of money, 吳振和 should be in an ideal position to finance Gus' SCMOS project.  Well, here is the connection, -'光之穹頂' leads to '穹頂之下'.  This '穹頂' is not exactly like the one in 高雄, but close enough.

'穹頂之下' 乃柴靜女士的驚人之作, 可是在 Internet 上面推波助浪,點擊率上億之時,突遭封殺,驚鴻一瞥,消聲匿跡. 這種事祇有在專制政權,沒有言論自由的社會才會發生. 奇怪的是中國大眾,包括海外華人,居然見怪不怪,沒有譴責和抱怨的聲音. 中國人真是那麼順民嗎? 當今全世界能把輿論像水龍頭一樣,要關就關,要開就開,小百姓像綿羊一樣的國家沒有幾個,中國是最醒目的一個. 我覺得龍應台比李敖 consistent. 李敖專罵國民党,可是碰到共產党卻噤聲消音,他是近代文人不可思議的一位典型'不誠實'人士. 今年是羊年,好像是中國人的典型 horoscope sign (溫順綿羊). 不過民間習俗卻大異其趣. 君知龍年,虎年,小民猛生龍女虎子,對恐龍暴虎敬畏有加,有誰聽說羊年要生貴子乎? 如此看來,中國人有人格分裂症? 幾年前 AL Gore 競選總統失敗後,東山再起,以 'An Inconvenient Truth' 一短片報導,就像柴女士一樣,在國際間暴紅,居然得獎無數,還包括 Nobel Prize. 同樣事情,在美國和中國居然有如此巨大不同的結果, 天淵之別,實令人嘆為覌止. 與此類似的尚有 Internet Great Wall. 中國政府对待 Internet 就像水龍頭一樣,要開就開,要關就關,廣大平民,一奌辦法都沒有. 以前有人說互聯網是推翻專制政權的一大利器,事實証明並不是這庅一回事,反倒是給專制政權一把利器用來控制輿論與人民. '水可載舟,亦可覆舟'.  Which one is on the upper hand, Dictatorship or the Freedom of Speech?  China also has developed a new censorship weapon to accompany its Great Firewall in order to silence not only its citizens -- but critics around the globe.  If we try to learn something from the history, we have to remember that the Great Wall had not been very effective since its inception more than two thousand years ago.

From 柴靜,令人想起柴玲女士. 名字接近,長得又像,好似姊妹. 這位有名的民運人士,脫胎換骨,與人離婚,民運也不幹了,書也不念了,搖身一變成為創業人士. 最近更與人對簿公堂,控告一異類牧師遠志明,非禮強姦,如是云云. 有趣的是這位野道牧師,來歷不明,背景特殊,令人啼笑皆非. 他本是馬克思的無神論信徒,後來脫皮變成一位基督教牧師,發表一些奇論. 遠志明在以拆字方式宣稱中文字隱含聖經內的描述以進行傳教，例如「船」字拆開成「舟八口」，代表著一艘船裝著八個人，就是創世紀中挪亜帶了一家八口進方舟的故事。將老子當成類似於舊約的先知，有似摩門教的 Joseph Smith. 將道德經 和聖經並列的表達,穿鑿附會,荒誕不經. 他被一些基督徒認為是和掌權者政治合作來控制基督教會.  遠志明稱在信主以前，幹過許多壞事，他說 "比柴玲現在指控強暴的更惡的事都幹過, 在主面前,赤露敞開,沒有什麼罪不能認的, 但是沒做過的事, 我也不能承認,妳不能強加我罪名,要我承認我沒有做過的事". 柴玲認為遠志明並沒有按她的意願道歉,之後把指控遠志明強暴的事情公布到網絡. 究竟誰'死不認錯',公說公有理,婆說婆有理. 柴玲從轟轟烈烈的民運,到被 rape 的控告,是沈淪還是靈性的昇華? 人各有志? 都是環境的產物,混沌學的又一章.

遠志明這种人也可以當牧師,使我想起當今和尚尼姑充斥五星級飯店,吃油食葷,不知修行為何物,變成一種另類的生活方式或謀生的職業,而不是修行生涯. 他們大多不事生產,把善男信女的供奉,不當浪費,實令人擲筆三嘆. 以前和尚尼姑皆是長居修道院,很少出外. 他們除了念經以外,还有時間種葡萄,喝喝酒.  Carl Orff 在他那震憾的名曲 '布蘭之歌' (Camina Burana), 把這些和尚描寫的淋漓盡致---Get out of Monastery, get Drunk and get Wild.

從牧師 接 (connect) 到我們同學俞繼斌,他在我們的 forum 沈默寡言,從没聽一句 'blessing' from him. 倒是一些同學們三不五時,念念不忘 blessing 一番. I get used to this 'blessing' now, it is almost like 'have a nice day' to me. 我一直以為基督教的牧師有傳教的職責,可是從來就没聽到俞同學的半點聲音. 大概他認為對學工程的人傳教是一件 '鴨子聽雷' 或 '對牛彈琴', 事倍功半的苦差事. 他也許不知道同學們居然有很多基督徒,還加上不少'半吊子'的基督徒. 祇要他花點小力氣,說不定事半功倍,滿載而歸. 不过對我來說, 俞同學的沈默倒是好事. 我記得房龍 (Hendrik Willem Van Loon) 說過一句話 (房龍英雄傳), "席間有一位牧師在座,那將是多麼掃興的一件事".

李光耀

The passing of 李光耀 signifies the end of an era of Singapore.  He is a visionary and strong leader.  Before independence in 1965, Singapore was the capital of the British Straits Settlements, a Crown Colony.  After its independence, along with Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan, Singapore became one of the original Four Asian Tigers. The Singaporean economy is known as one of the freest, most innovative, most competitive, and most business-friendly. The 2013 Index of Economic Freedom ranks Singapore as the second freest economy in the world, behind Hong Kong. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, Singapore is consistently ranked as one of the least corrupt countries in the world, along with New Zealand and the Scandinavian countries.  This astonished achievements largely was due to the vision and the policies of 李光耀 who steered the treacherous path of Singapore's development in the modern world.  From the very beginning, Singapore adopts English as the official language in the country even majority of them are Chinese.  This gives Singapore instant advantage in almost every international activity among Asian countries.  It is  as if a set of people suddenly abandons its cultural burden and press a reset button for a fresh reboot.

As of 2014, Singapore is the 14th largest exporter and the 15th largest importer in the world. The country has the highest trade-to-GDP ratio in the world, signifying the importance of trade to its economy. The country is currently the only Asian country to receive AAA credit ratings from all three major credit rating agencies: Standard and Poor's, Moody's, Fitch.  Singapore attracts a large amount of foreign investment as a result of its location, corruption-free environment, skilled workforce, low tax rates and advanced infrastructure. There are more than 7,000 multinational corporations from the United States, Japan, and Europe in Singapore. There are also approximately 1,500 companies from China and a similar number from India. Foreign firms are found in almost all sectors of the country's economy. Singapore is also the second-largest foreign investor in India.  Roughly 44 percent of the Singaporean workforce is made up of non-Singaporeans.  Over ten free-trade agreements have been signed with other countries and regions.  Singapore also possesses the world's eleventh largest foreign reserves, and has one of the highest net international investment position per capita.  Acute poverty is rare in Singapore. The government has rejected the idea of a generous welfare system, stating that each generation must earn and save enough for its entire life cycle.  In Singapore, the philosophy of welfare rests on four pillars:

1. Each generation should pay its own way.

2. Each family should pay its own way.

3. Each individual should pay his own way.

4. Only after passing through these three filters should individual turn to the government for help. 

Singapore has the world's highest percentage of millionaires, with one out of every six households having at least one million US dollars in disposable wealth. This excludes property, businesses, and luxury goods, which if included would increase the number of millionaires, especially as property in Singapore is among the world's most expensive.  Singapore does not have a minimum wage, believing that it would lower its competitiveness. 

However, something may not be that glitter.  In recent years, the country has been identified as an increasingly popular tax haven for the wealthy due to the low tax rate on personal income and tax exemptions on foreign-based income and capital gains. Australian millionaire retailer Brett Blundy, with an estimated personal wealth worth AU$835 million, and multi-billionaire Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin are two examples of wealthy individuals who have settled in Singapore.  Also despite market freedom, Singapore's government operations have a significant stake in the economy, contributing 22% of the GDP.  Below the surface Singapore is not a Shangri la either.  李光耀 holds the view of so-called "Asian Values".  The cult of "Asian values" grew in the 1990's as the economies of East Asia and Southeast Asia took off.   He argued that there were hard and clear differences between "Eastern" and "Western" cultures: In the former, the individual matters less than in the latter, and, as a consequence, in the former, human rights matter less than the need for the security of the collective and economic growth.  This argument finds its backers in Asia's authoritarian countries, but it has also been widely criticized as well. More than 60 percent of the world's population lives in Asia, and to imply that each and every Asian is somehow bound by a shared system of values is utterly preposterous. The fact that some of East Asia's most advanced economies — Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan — also are healthy, battle-tested democracies suggests that societies steeped in Confucianism can happily accommodate more liberal, "modern" forms of politics. 

Perhaps the right question to ask is that which way of governing is better in the long run.  Singapore is a miracle in her achievement so far.  Its economy, education and the transparency of the government are highly ranked in the world.  Most Singaporeans seem content and few protest has been found in and outside of the society.  If government is for the people, Singapore must be the one. As to 'of the people' and 'by the people', it depends on how you look at them.

Here are some of the many criticisms worth noting.  

1. Singapore as "the most open and clear society in the world", and that since every minister is paid at least $1 m a year, "there is no temptation and it is the cleanest society you would find anywhere".  To some people, this is also a bribe to the government officials.  That is to say, they support Lee Kuan Yew's unjust laws and policies in return for money.  Officials who seek authority as custodians of political power must have the character to keep away from crime no matter what the temptation might be.  The argument that ministers should be paid millions of dollars to keep them from corruption does not hold water.   

2. Many journalists were imprisoned. Independently owned newspapers were shut down. Today all Singaporean publications, TV channels and radio stations are owned and run by the government.

3. Civil society is nonexistent. Non-government organisations, student bodies and trade unions are tightly controlled.  Public assemblies outside a small and demarcated area are banned.

4. The opposition is in a moribund state.  Many of its leaders have been arrested and detained without trial, prosecuted in court, and sued till bankruptcy for defamation.

5. The election system is far from free and fair.  The "election" of the country's president to be held in a few weeks' time, for example, is restricted to a handful of candidates allowed by the prime minister.

6. Political power amassed in the hands of the few in Singapore is also used to ensure that a disproportionate amount of financial power is accumulated in those same hands.

Two books are worth reading for the dark side of Singapore.

(1) To Catch a Tartar: A Dissident in Lee Kuan Yew's Prison, October 1, 1994 by Francis T. Seow.

This book details everything from Mr Francis Seow's journey as Solicitor-general to his detention without trial by the ISD and his eventual exile from Singapore. It disproves every piece of nonsense about Singapore's impartial and transparent judiciary and media. 

(2) Singapore's Authoritarian Capitalism," by Christopher Lingle

Mr. Lingle describes an unwritten social contract under which citizens tolerate political repression in exchange for material rewards. After visiting the country for 25 years, He underestimates the appeal of the package of rising living standards and clean administration that the governing People's Action Party delivers in return for a fairly free hand in running the country.  From a perspective gained from his service as a former Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore, Dr. Lingle identifies Singapore's authoritarian capitalism as combining a selective degree of economic freedom and private property rights with strong-armed control over political life. According to him, political loyalty is the ultimate determinant of success rather than the efficient utilization of resources, and sycophantic business relations replace the growth-inducing actions of true entrepreneurs. Singapore's Authoritarian Capitalism questions the long-term survival of the PAP and its capacity to sustain Singapore's miracle growth record due to internal contradictions arising from the imposed institutional arrangements.

Leaders in Singapore's PAP regime see themselves as a permanent fixture. Yet despite their grip on all organs of political power, the record clearly shows a continual decline in the margins of victory at the polls. These results suggest that Singaporeans are suffering from PAP fatigue. Apparently, an increasing number of people believe that the material gains do not constitute adequate compensation for the nanny-state nagging of an arrogant political leadership.  Some of the regime's most prominent spokespersons have gone on the offensive by promoting a contrived set of Asian values to legitimize their exercise of unchallenged authority. Simultaneously, they also identify certain values as a threat to stability, usually equated with one-party rule. The PAP's position on these issues remains unchallenged at home due to an obsessive control over the media and the vigorous suppression of dissent.

Singapore's critics have plenty of genuine grievances to denounce.  So why do the critics keep complaining about "lack of democracy" when the real story is that most Singaporeans persistently prefer the PAP to the opposition?  You may think in Singapore, one knows something is wrong, but he cannot question it like the person in any other free country in the world.  But this can't explain why there are not many protests by Singaporeans outside the country.

While studying Singapore, we can find some precedents in history.  It is Enlightened Despots.  By the end of the 18th Century, the new ideas from Locke, Montesquieu, Rousseau and Voltaire exerted enormous influences in Europe that most rulers tried to transform themselves.  The most noted two are Frederick II of Prussia and Catherine II of Russia.  They ruled according to the principles of enlightened despotism.  These principles included favoring religious tolerance, making economic and legal reforms and justifying their rule by its usefulness to society rather than by divine right.  However, after the passing of Frederick and Catherine, their forms of ruling eventually collapsed and ideas got forgotten.  Since the real system is not there in root and the passing of a strong leader usually causes the collapse of the reform.  It remains to be seen whether the case of Singapore mirroring the 'Enlighten Despot'.

It may be interesting to compare the three regions formed by mostly Chinese ethnic people in recent history and see how they stack up in the performance and also project their future.  'Democracy', 'Science', 'Capitalism' and 'Communism' are the four major ideologies of the 20th century.  孫中山和胡適 服膺 '民主' 與 '科學', 毛澤東和同恩來擁抱國際共產主義,李光耀追求'科學'和'資本主義'.  香港 什麼都不重要,祇要 Free to choose 的資本主義.  三人行,必有我師焉, 大家可以從他們的經驗得到一些教訓和智慧. 到現在為止,好像大陸的變相共產加資本主義和科學有後來居上的趨勢. 大陸和新加坡不用民主而採 Plato 式的政治程序,類似羅馬天主教,倒是近代很值得探討和思考的議題.

Venture Capital and Shark Tank

Shark Tank is a TV reality competition show that five or six investor tycoons pitch against the aspiring entrepreneurs for investment and fund.  The contestants make business presentations briefly.  They talked about the exchange of 15% of the company with $100K or something like this.  You’d think how a business deal can be decided within 15 minutes.  It must be like an impulse buying and most impulse buying is not good investment.  However, you watch the show and see the exchange of the idea and figure, you realize the deal can be made and the outcome may not be that bad after all.  In fact, most of the deals go pretty well as the time can tell.

Well, after watching the Shark Tank, you start to wonder why the VC business in the real world is so complicate and time consuming to arrange.  Perhaps VC & ST are the two extremes of the same business.  VC depends on the detail analysis and number crunching to reach the conclusion as to invest or not.  In contrast, ST depends on a brief presentation, some general number & figure and mainly some quickie inquiries and gut feeling to make decision, invest or not, ie make a deal or I am out.

In VC, the fund is a pool of money from various sources.  In ST, the fund is from the shark 100%.  The investor is like CEO or the owner of the project, so he can say yes or no in the right spot.  It is not a team sport.  It is not a symphony, it is a solo instrument.  It is like a special case of business investment.  It is like one-man company with a lot of money fund.  You go out to seek and buy some business deals. You try to bid against other people and try to get deal at the lowest possible cost you can get.  Meanwhile you skip all others you don’t think they are worth the time and effort.  I wonder why this business model can’t be executed on the street, Wall Street or City Street.  To push this further, why can’t we do it on the Internet?  With instant video conference, the Shark Tank can be assembled easily and performed in a daily basis.  The investor shark & aspired entrepreneur can be screened and qualified depending on the particular business model.

The figures and numbers most of the time are beyond my head.  I know one thing I can't do is to make the decision right there within 15 minutes.  I sort of admire those Sharks, they sure look sharp on number and have keen sense of the nature of business.  Some of us work in the high tech industry know that it is hard to write a business plan and proposal.  It is even harder to meet those VC investors.  Now these five or six sharks look at those small fishes in the tank.  It is sometime hard to watch the episode without emotion.  You either feel good, bad, distress or downright disgusting when the shark calls fish cockroach or something else.  The Shark Tank looks like a micro-cosmos of VC as it tries to compress 6-month VC process to a 15-minute decision.  I kind of think the shark can not lose as long as there are enough good & reasonable proposals come along.  After all, if you have the cash, you are the king.

Vienna Philharmonic New Year's Concert 2015

There are three major events attract most people's attention near the end of every year.  one is Macy's Thanksgiving Parade in New York, then the Rose Parade on New years day at Pasadena and the last is the Vienna Philharmonic New Year's Concert.  People around the world gather around fireplace, watch the heart-warming parades and music/dance performance in their family rooms.  This becomes a tradition for many people to end the year and usher in the new year.  Of course just before watching the Rose Parade, most people sing Auld Lang Syne to send the old year off for nostalgic purpose.

This year, Zubin Mehta leads the concert for the fifth time and arranges a repertoire dedicated to science, technology, wine, music and dance. The concert is considered to be the largest worldwide event in classical music, reaching millions of people annually through radio, TV and the Internet in over 80 countries.  It showcased Viennese musical culture at the highest level, and since the first telecast in 1959, sent the world a New Year's greeting in the spirit of hope, friendship and peace.

The concert is about two hours long and the program consists of two parts with intermission.  The Austrian telecast version is by ORF (Austrian Broadcasting).  The American version is edited to one and half hour narrated by Julie Andrews this year.  Here let's take a look of the second part of the program (after Intermission).

        Johann Strauss – Perpetual Motion

        Johann Strauss- Accelerations Waltz

        Johann Strauss- Electro-Magnetic Polka

        Eduard Strauss – At Full Steam, Quick Polka

        Josef Strauss- Viennese Life, French Polka

        Johann Strauss- On the Elbe, Waltz

        Hans Christian Lumby – Champagne Galop

        Johann Strauss – Students Polka

        Johann Strauss Sr.- Freedom March

        Johann Strauss- Annen-Polka

        Johann Strauss- Wine, Women & Song, Waltz

        Eduard Strauss- With Style, Quick Polka

At a glance, the first four pieces are devoted to science and technology.  1850's was the high time of industrial revolution and the music reflects that spirit.  The 'Perpetual Motion' and 'Accelerations' come from Physics, 'Electro-Magnetic' is from Electrical Engineering, 'At Full Steam' is from Mechanical Engineering.  The combined first four polka/waltz is like microprocessor, personal computer, Internet and mobile phone all lumped together in our time. It follows with life in Vienna and on the River Elbe.  Elbe (易北河) is not that famous like Donau (Danube) or Rhine, nevertheless it is a major river in Germany.  Then it comes with Champagne Galop.  It is a hilarious gathering for wine tasting with a 'pop', a sign of good life.  After the high tech and champagne, it ushers in the 'Students Polka', a reflection of college student life.  Before I go further, you might get confused about the waltz, polka, galop etc.  Waltz is easy, it is just a common dance we see in ballroom dance competition.  Polka is a faster pace with two-beat dance.  However, there are many types of polka, to name a few, francaise polka, mazulka polka, quick polka etc.  As to Galop, it is just a much quicker polka.  Now lets get into our main theme, the Students Polka.  You listen to this polka and immediately you catch the familiar tune, "Gaudeamus Igitur".  It is a drinking song sung in Latin started around 13th century.  Johannes Brahms also used this tune in his 'Academic Festival Overture'.  Now the question comes up, why drinking becomes a theme of college life?  Perhaps most people thought the university was mostly for the rich kids at that time.  Well, in parallel with the concert, a modern ballet is performed in the Vienna University to portray the student life.  Like most artistic work, you can interpret with your imagination and find the influence or likeness in your life.  Here is my interpretation based on the experience in our college time and wish you have your own version.  Meanwhile I should say 'thank' to the Internet.  Without it, it is just hard to talk about music and dance in a synchronous manner.  Please visit the following link and just watch it from 35:15 to 39:25.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-P46Gr4VvY

35:15---Johann Strauss Sohn, Sohn is son in German.  There are two Johann Strauss, Senior and Junior or Father and Son.  Junior is more famous and is called 'The Waltz King'.  Most music pieces you hear here are by Junior.  However, the well-known march at the end of the concert is always 'Radetzky  March' by Johann Strauss Senior.  Polka Francaise is a French style polka, a slower and mellow polka.

35:35---This is a good old Unversity of Vienna with a very nice library.

35:42-36.00---This is the main theme, the drinking song with mellow tone.

36:00---Three college kids rush into scene, one from physics dept, one from mechanical engineering and one from electrical engineering.  They are heading to the library but meet and chat there.  Before getting into library, they talk about the party the previous night and decide to make some plan for the weekend.

36:30--- They drop the textbook and forget the whole thing about study with the drinking tune hanging around.

36:45---Well, it is the time to pick up the books and head to the main library.

36:51---Just around & up the stairways, here come 兩位外文系高材生.

37:00---Wow, they are teasing and flirting, my goodness!

37:38---But I have to study '电機機械', better go & hurry.

37:50---Hold it, what happen to the girls?  Go with those two guys? 是可忍,孰不可忍?

38:00---Hack with 馬雲龍, let's go to take a look.

38:05---Hey, guy, shape up, don't 毛手毛腳.

38:26---Wait, 君子動腦不動手, why not duel on the study table (not majhang table)? 桌上見.

38:34---永動機?荒謬! Locomotive? runs only on the track! Here is something new, 這邊電場,那邊磁場,中間就可轉起來!

38:50---No hidden deal under the table!

38:54---Here is the demo, rotation!

39:00---兩位外文系高材生 頭被轉昏了. Wow, the EE kid looks real, let's go with him for another experiment.

39:10---See, 左邊電場,右邊磁場,中間的我就可動起來.

39:20---左右逢源,大地回春. What a life!

39:25---Viva Faraday, Viva Maxwell. Long Live the Electrical Engineer.

I mentioned the good old 'Gaudeamus Igitur'.  Some music critic (Sigmund Spaeth) said it is the second most famous tune in the world.  I am not sure about this but at least it stands out to be a popular one.  Most music lovers know this tune is used in Brahms Academic Festival Overture in a big way in its ending.  It sounds odd to celebrate the graduation with the drinking song.  However, if from another angle to look at this, it may not be that inappropriate.  After the toils of four years, labors in library & laboratory, you finally get the coveted degree.  Isn't it the right time to indulge on some drinking binge?  As the lyrics of the song indicates, after the joyous young age and after the painful old age, all we have is the earth.  In other words, 萬物終將歸塵土.

Here is the little story about this episode of Brahms.  In the summer of 1879, The University of Breslau awarded Brahms an honorary doctorate degree and Brahms accepted.  However, he didn't do anything until sometime in 1880, someone told him that the university expected him to write some music  in return.  Brahms in haste and didn't have enough time to compose something meaningful.  He then threw in several songs sang in various schools and blended them into something like coming out of a soup kitchen.  At the end of the overture, he chose this drinking song 'Gaudeamus Igitur'.  Well, you guess it, some liked it and some didn't.  Some conservative parents thought it is unforgivable to tell graduates starting their life with drinking.  Anyway, Brahms got the degree and the university got the overture, a happy ending after all.

Remark:

The video clip has been removed from YouTube due to the copyright issue.  This is not uncommon these days in the Internet age.  Usually the program is available for several weeks for public view.  Although the owner of the program has the right to do whatever it wants, it is a pity that it diminishes the value of the program by imposing the restriction.  If most people can't watch and appreciate the artistic program, what is the use of the program itself?  Of course we can go and buy the DVD of the program, but to most people it is a severe inconvenience. 

Chaos and Life

Is life predictable?  Isn't it like weather forecast?  Yes, it is partially predictable in the short term.  However, the accuracy of the long term forecast is way off and not many people take it seriously.  Even in the short term forecast, it is only partially predictable.  Sometime a slight cause exerts a big effect in the weather pattern.  Our life is very much like it.  In the late 20th century, there is hardly an earthshaking thought created except the Theory of Chaos.  It is a mathematical model of studying a system related to its stability.  The Chaos states that the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependency on initial conditions in which a small change at one place in a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

In the course of our life, the successful rate of the short term trip is very high comparing to the long term one.  It can be understood by using an input/output model with a deterministic box A, input A(i) yield output A(o).  For illustrated purpose, a person plans with input A(i) = 5.  He thinks it is 5 exact.  But in reality, the input value may be 5.00 with accuracy to two significant digits.  In the real world, a point is like a real number.  The person thinks his input is 5.00 but actually it may be 5.003 or 5.00243 in the real situation.  He can't see the difference in input as he only sees to the two digit accuracy in decimal place.  The point here is that even the person can only control the input to certain decimal places, any slight difference in the nth decimal places may cause a big change in the output for a nonlinear system.  For example the person may control his input to 5.000000....  But the sudden death of his son in a remote area may be the 100th decimal place of his input.  Since life most of the time is a nonlinear system, a small perturbation may cause a big change of behavior.  In this case, it is really look like a butterfly effect as something occurs thousand miles away but the impact is almost instant at the Internet speed.  The result is that the person has to terminate the trip he planned and rush to his sun's funeral.  The outcome A(o) is totally out of prediction from his input but can be explained with the Theory of Chaos.  In real life, we simply can not control the input to the accuracy of reality and the nth decimal place very often causes a big effect to the outcome.  It can also be rephrased as: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.

Since history is the story of mankind (a group of people), its behavior can also be unpredictable.  In the field of Electrical Engineering, there is one discipline called Control System.  It studies the stability of a system and how to control it.  A Russian Aleksandr Lyapunov (1857-1918) figured out some way to determine whether the system is stable without actually solving the detailed states of the system.  Lyapunov's study and impact were significant, and it is interesting to know a number of different mathematical concepts and engineering terms bear his name.  Here are some examples, Lyapunov Equation, Lyapunov Function, Lyapunov Exponent, Lyapunov Stability, Lyapunov Vector, Lyapunov Time etc.  Maximal Lyapunov Exponent (MLE) determines a notion of predictability for a dynamical system.  A positive MLE is taken as an indication that the system is chaotic.

Chaos theory also concerns some deterministic systems whose behavior can in principle be predicted. Chaotic systems are sometime predictable for a while and then appear to become random. The amount of time for which the behavior of a chaotic system can be effectively predicted depends on three factors:

(1) how much uncertainty we are willing to tolerate in the forecast

(2) how accurately we are able to measure its current state

(3) a time scale depending on the dynamics of the system, called the Lyapunov time.

Some examples of Lyapunov times are: chaotic electrical circuits, about 1 millisecond; weather systems, a couple of days; the solar system, 50 million years. In chaotic systems the uncertainty in a forecast increases exponentially with elapsed time. Hence doubling the forecast time squares the proportional uncertainty in the forecast. This means that in practice a meaningful prediction cannot be made over an interval of more than two or three times the Lyapunov time. When meaningful predictions cannot be made, the system appears to be random.  Perhaps the significance of Lyapunov's work is that someday we may prove the human history to be chaotic without getting into a lot of details in analyzing it.

The Meaning of Thanksgiving

The first Thanksgiving was celebrated by the pilgrims in 1621 after their first harvest in the new world.  It was told that more than 80 native Americans and 50 pilgrims participated the celebration.  It is human nature to say thank after harvest or good fortune to those whom they believe to be the reason behind it.  Originally, the pilgrims are puritans, white and religious.  So the thanksgiving always has religious tone even the native Americans also participated.  When time goes by and new immigrants keep coming to the new world, the celebration of the Thanksgiving became less religious.  After all, most people say thank to God even they believe a different god.  The meaning of God transcends any particular religion.  This is the reason Thanksgiving is accepted by all works of life, all people in the US and Canada.  In fact, it is common in any part of the world, the people celebrate and say thank to god after some harvest activities.  It is only the US and Canada make it an annual ritual that transcends any particular harvest event.

Around 1000 AD, Leif Erikson tried to colonize the new world in Vinland near gulf of St. Lawrence.  After two years effort, they failed and left with most of them perished.  In this particular case, they had no reason to thank and they had every reason to curse as the fate was so cruel to them.  However, when people die, they cease to exist and they never get the chance to say what they believe.  This is like social Darwinism, the history is the winner's history.  Whatever come down generation to generation are those from the survivors and the winners in the struggle of existence.  So it is not hard to comprehend why Thanksgiving thrives and becomes popular as only the survivor and the winner say thank to their God.

Since I came to the US in 1965, the Thanksgiving Day has been important and meaningful to me as I was invited by American friends and host families to spend the day.  We spend the whole day together, talk about our life, our belief, play some games like jeopardy or chess, eat turkey dinner around a long and big table near a fire place.  Finally we say thank to God and go home peacefully.

When time goes by, we start to see something change as the commercial part of the holiday becomes evident.  Lately the first thing people have in mind is Black Friday when Thanksgiving is coming.  Black Friday is a big shopping day for people, started from 6 pm of the Thanksgiving Day.  It means you have to cut short your Thanksgiving dinner, have less time to be with your family and may not have a chance to say thank to God.  For those who have to work at this hour for the retail shops, their Thanksgiving Day are gone forever.  The original meaning of the Thanksgiving is thus lost in the oblivion.

A Miracle

We sometime visited a telephone company and saw a trunk of wires, hundred of switches, relays and thousands of connections.  The whole thing looks complicate and like a gigantic puzzle.  Technology indeed changes the world and the ways we lead our life.  Lately, while trying to find out whether I should use DSL or install Cable for the Internet, I opened the little phone box just outside garage and also examined the cable setup inside garage.  They are very simple and similar, only two wires.  One looks like a twisted pair of tiny wires and the other is a coaxial cable of RG6.  The two wires used for the phone look so fragile and tiny, I almost think it is a miracle that has worked for so many years of service in my house.  First, it can ring the bell and when I answer the phone, it carries the phone conversation to and fro without any hiccup.  It also connects to a fax machine.  These two tiny wires can transmit several pages of document to another side of the world within a few minutes.  It has worked for 30 years, amazing.  Remember, it is only a twisted pair of two tiny wires that accomplishes the task as it is the only connection between my house and the outside world.  With DSL going through the twisted pair, I can see the whole world via millions of websites with tons of information more than I can handle most of the time.  Without the knowledge of electromagnetics and its theory, most people will think it is a miracle.

It is indeed the information theory and technology transform the world to a well-connected universe that brings people together and the world visibly becomes smaller.  If you work in a cubicle of building A and talk to someone in the building B, it makes no difference whether building B is just across the street or in Bangalore of India. In fact, even without wires can accomplish the same feat, it is radio, wireless connection.  We know in the world of electrical engineering, the lumped element model circuit theory, distributed element model transmission lines and EM wave are all related and can be deduced from the Maxwell's four equations with some assumption of the boundary conditions.  In ordinary power applications, circuit theory is good enough.  For information transfer, the concept of transmission lines applies well.  With radio and TV transmissions, EM theory rules the wave.  In fact, when we use the mobile devices outside our houses, it needs hot spot that transmits the EM wave.  In our house, we use DSL or Cable to get the necessary information via modem and then it creates a hot spot for house through wifi, a wireless EM wave.  Of course, with the understanding of the electrical engineering, the whole thing no longer a mystery, it becomes a logical consequence of the mother nature.  But think again, it is still a miracle with only two tiny wires or one coaxial cable that accomplishes such a complicate human task.

People very often say they find miracle everyday.  Some find God, some see Jesus, some see Madonna on the screen door and some see the mysterious light coming from the heaven or even in the Internet.  These miracles happen everyday and around our living space.  The only difference of these miracles from our two tiny wires is that the former seems to happen in un-opportune time and can't be predicted.  However the latter is here everyday that we all take it for granted and ceases to be a miracle by definition.