It is the summer solstice today, the longest day of the year for the northern hemisphere. It is also the high time of the World Cup Soccer, once every four year. People say if you are really interested or crazy about any particular event, you should go to where the action is. In general this is true. However, practically it is not that attractive or economical to do it. Like travel, you like to see the place first hand with your eyes and personal presence, but you can't see all places in the world with your limited time and resources, you just have to make some trade-off. In this age of mass media, TV, Internet and DVD are so popular and easily accessible, we can really make the most out of it and our life is never be the same. Instead of going to Brazil, I stay at home in my family room with big TV screen. I can watch every match and replay with all the analysis and comments on the sport. It is really great. As to the feeling of the on-site excitement, I did have one in 1994. It was 20 years ago, the US hosted the World Cup Soccer. I got two tickets of the Stanford Stadium for the match between Brazil and Russia. I took Helen, my daughter, with me to the stadium for that particular afternoon. We still remember the excitement and the grand feeling of the event. Yes, there is something you can only feel it by being there. However, with the improvement of the quality of mass media, the difference of being there and not being there diminishes rather quickly.
The FIFA World Cup is the quadrennial soccer championship held every four years. The Cup’s final game is the single most viewed sporting event on earth. It is like a special Olympics. The 2010 match between Spain and The Netherlands was watched by an estimated 700 million people. Meanwhile American Football is only ranked #9 as the most watched sport in the world.
I watched most of the World Cup matches and found them very interesting and rewarding. It is kind of odd that soccer in the US is way off the chart regarding to the popularity. The reason may be the following:
1. Low score of the match, 0-0 is very common.
2. Continuous play without stop makes TV commercials impractical.
The low score is due to the difficulty of kicking the ball into the goal. The game can be exciting or boring depending on how often players attack the goal. If both teams are good in defense, the whole 90-minute match may look very boring especially to American people who get used to the American Football.
I found that if the total goals are divided into 8 parts, the distribution of the scoring goals is something like the following:
3: Heading
2: Quick and lightning attack
1: Powerful long range kick
1: 12 yard penalty kick
1: Perfect pass and penetration
It is logical to see heading is the most common goal, as it is the only way to attack from the above in soccer in front of the goal. It is also interesting to see the methodical way to win a goal is only 1/8. Perfect pass and coordinating attack are not that important comparing to the quick attack at the opportune time. The reason of this is that there are just too many players running in front of the goal during slow attack. It is usually the lightning attack that you find only 2 or 3 defenders in front of the goal. The other reason is that you can't touch the ball with hands and also you can't go 'offside' while attacking. The offensive player cannot wait for the ball behind the last defender (not counting the other team's goalie). If that offensive player shows just a little part of his body or more behind the imaginary line where the last defender is before the ball is kicked and sent forward, it is an offside violation. Since the game makes the offense hard to proceed, it tends to create a score 0-0, a boring match.
One thing odd is the Fake Injury in Soccer. It is quite common and well known. I watched video and some replay, it seems half of the time, they are real but the other half is questionable. Sometime you don't see the body contact, but just a free fall causes some severe pain to the player. Is this a real injury? For this case, it is highly possible that the player fakes his pain. Perhaps FIFA should adopt some instant video replay or some high tech scheme to decide who should get penalty for faking. But then the play has to be interrupted that will generate some other issues. The soccer players only wear T-shirt without helmet and shoulder padding but with spike shoe. This perhaps the reason the players get hurt easily. Although the body contact is not that severe comparing to American Football, most soccer players play rough and show no hesitation tackling the other players.
Since World Cup Soccer is watched by people of almost all countries of the world, the teams qualified to play make their countries quite visible, especially if the teams get to the semi-final and final matches. Since the inception of the World Cup Soccer, China never passes the qualified stage and so China is almost invisible on the world stage of soccer. If a country can make so much progress in Summer Olympics, why can't it make any improvement or breakthrough to the soccer? This is a good question and can only be resolved by Chinese people.
13 comments:
American team seldom made any impact to the World Cup Soccer. I don't think this time will be any different. I watched two matches so far American played. The first matched was dominated by Ghana most of the time. The US was lucky to beat Ghana 2-1 by a sneak attack in the first minute. I have never seen any goal occurred so early. Ghana controlled the ball most of the time but failed to score. US played well most of the time in the second match against Portugal. But ironically lost a goal in the final minute to Portugal. It seems the nature has a funny way to maintain balance for giving and taking. To survive from the knockout stage, the US has to tie with Germany but it is quite unlikely. If play normally, Germany may beat the US by 4-1. So if Ghana beat Portugal, the US may be out of luck. The hindsight is that the US shouldn't have lost the goal at the final moment of the match with Portugal. It is important to maintain your focus and put 100% of your energy & effort to the game. If the US midfielder didn't lose the control of the ball in that final minute, it would have automatically advanced from the knock-out stage to the next-16 already. The good old adage comes handy: Never Give Up.
Germany beat the US by 1-0 and Portugal beat Ghana by 2-1 today. So the US survives the knock out round by the better score count over Portugal. The US will be against Belgium in the next round of 16. I watched the match between Belgium & Korea today. The Belgian is better but not that great in skill, so the US may have a chance to get to the Top Eight. After that, it is going to be tough. Based on what I have seen so far, I predict the four teams will be in the Final Four: Germany, Brazil/Netherlands, Colombia and Argentina. In other words, it is just as usual, European vs South American. African & Asian need more work to do in the future. Especially Chinese people have to enlarge the scope over Ping Pong and focus on something grander.
This is a shoot-out day of South Americans. Brazil had to spend 120 minutes and still tied with Chile. The final shoot-out is 3-2 in favor of Brazil. It was a thrilled match and Brazil should win since it played better in defense & attack. It also had more opportunities to score. Ironically, it boils down to 'a matter of pole'. Chile hit the pole twice & bounced the ball back. If Chile missed the pole or hit the pole and slipped the ball into the goal, it might be one of the luckiest day for them. If Chile won the match today, Brazil may plunge into one of the darkest day in its history & its stock market may crash too. So at least this is a happy ending or lucky day for them. But to Chile, it has to work harder for another four years to rewrite history. For them it becomes a bad memory as it was beaten by Brazil several times in the same way. A great country will find a way to reverse the situation & I hope Chile is no exception.
Colombia beat Uruguay as I predicted. The play style of Colombia is clean, fast & effective in both defense & especially attack. The two goals it got looked so clean & easy that you didn't see them sweat at all. Meanwhile, Uruguay ran & played hard most of the time but its speed & ball-control skill were one notch lower than Colombia. We used to learn the ABC of South America in school: Argentina, Brazil & Chile. Now once C got knocked out. However, another C, Colombia advanced. Argentina is still in, so we still have ABC of South America intact in the World Cup.
青辣椒 大戰 胡蘿蔔
墨西哥隊青一色球衣面對淺橘色的荷蘭隊 好似卡通片的'青辣椒大戰胡蘿蔔',精彩萬分. 墨西哥來勢凶洶,絕非省油的燈. 半場下來,一路掌控,中場臨門一腳,居然中彩. 下半場大概胡蘿蔔已經適應了麻辣味道,睜開眼睛,開始猛攻. Sneider 一記長程遠射,有如火箭,又直又勁,轟然入網,墨西哥門將素有'鐵門'之稱,居然直立不動,眼睜睜讓球進門. 當你看到球進,翻網而上,雖不間其聲,卻直打到你心版上.這種感覺,真是視覺上的享受,在HD的電視上,表現得淋漓盡緻. 不僅如此,在最後一分鐘, Robben 盤球,一路從右邊角長驅直達底線,然後一停,馬上左旋右轉,一躍而上,想穿過防守.說時遲,那時快,他全身撲倒在地. 亂軍中一聲哨音,裁判罰十二碼球.胡蘿蔔kicker,又快又直,一球進網,結束球賽.
足球和其他球類一樣,有其特點和規矩,要勝對方需要好的技術和体力,更重要的是'以智取勝'.在這場比賽,墨西哥在体力和戰術上佔上風,但荷蘭在戰略上顯然更上一層樓,以長傳快攻,巧妙傳球,加上不時長射遠攻,適時長驅直入,讓對方在禁區犯規,實在可圈可點,不愧為一支勁旅.
非洲軍團,全軍覆沒
步'止步十六強'的亞洲兵團,,非洲軍團在六月的最後一天,全軍覆沒,全部捲鋪蓋,止步八強. 這兩場比賽,法國/Nigeria (2:0); 德國/Algeria (2:1). 歐洲隊中皆有一10號人物,善於盤球及傳球,常替隊友創造機會,又具備臨門一腳的功夫,以頭頂球入門更是拿手,的確是十項全能的靈魂人物.法國有 Benzema, 德國有 Muller,荷蘭有 Sneider. 至於阿根庭則有世界聞名的 Messi.他們總是在最後關頭,扭轉乾坤,奠定勝局. 我猜進入四強可能是:巴西,阿根庭,荷蘭和德國. 有一冷門,哥倫比亞黑馬一匹,氣走巴西,極有可能.
The final 4 are out as predicted: Germany, Brazil, Netherlands & Argentina. It is not easy to do the next prediction as they are all very close in skill & quality play. This reminds me of the 'Paul the Octopus' four years ago. The Octopus correctly predicted the Spain as the winner & it was correct at that time. Without 'Paul the Octopus', I just have to pick one myself, it is Germany. Of course, on paper it is only 25% chance to be correct. With my gut feeling, I think it is more than 50% chance.
I just watched the match between Germany & Brazil. It was a stunning defeat of Brazil with 1-7 score. For Brazil fan, it is a very disappointed moment & a day of misery. I couldn't spot a single Brazilian fan smiling in the stadium. To Brazilian, it is heart-broken, broken to the bottom of the heart. The best salvage they can do is to win the another match to clinch #3 spot and save face perhaps with a score of 8-1, albeit it is a monumental task.
My prediction in picking Germany the winner is correct. However, win by 7-1 is beyond my imagination. This match is not the ordinary match as no goal is due to heading, but by some clean, clear & beautiful passing to penetrate defense. The winning goals look so easy & clean as if they are from a textbook.
Something should be mentioned on Brazil team. Two of its stars are missing in the field due to some penalty and injury. One is the striker Neymar. But the most damaging one is Silva, who is instrumental in the defense. But there is just no excuse, perhaps Brazil played too rough and committed foul too often in the previous matches. No matter how you phrase it, the end-result counts. The performance of the German team is admirable. I also kind of sense that the last Brazilian goal looked like a gift from the Germans as they just played it loosely and didn't run that fast as they used to.
Dutch will play against Argentine today in the last semi-final match. Both are good solid teams & you will have hard time to bet your own money in picking the winner. Like any activity in your life, based on the incomplete information, you just have to make a decision with your gut feeling. I pick Dutch this time as the team is more explosive & spontaneous in attacking. Also emotionally I root for a team which never clinch the title but in the runner-up so many times before.
One afterthought, why German beat Brazilian with 7-1 but managed to beat American with only 1-0 two weeks ago? Does it mean American a better team than Brazil? The answer is 'no' as this is not algebra. Each soccer match is different and unique.
Netherlands & Argentina ended up with 0-0 in 120-minute contest. It sounds boring but actually it was an exciting match. The defense on both sides made the star players like Messi & Robben not very effective. This is a complete different match from the previous one, Germany vs Brazil as the defense was tight. There were simply too many players before the goal that there was not much space or hole that you can maneuver or squeeze in. So the outcome had to be decided by 12-yard shoot-out. Here I think Dutch made mistakes as it didn't use the same setup as the previous one with Costa Rica. First Robin van Persie was missing. The second the option of introducing substitute goalkeeper Tim Krul was not feasible. First-choice keeper Jasper Cillessen had never saved a professional penalty before the shoot-out. This is just very unfortunate but can also be considered as a tactical or even strategic error. Anyway, Van Gaal, the Dutch couch said it well:
"It just goes to show it's not easy scoring in a shootout. It's the most terrible scenario, to lose on penalties. At the very least we were equal with them, if not the better team. It's a big disappointment".
There are only two matches remaining. Here is my prediction:
Brazil will beat Netherlands for #3 spot.
Germany will beat Argentina for championship.
What an exciting time for most of the world, when the World Cup event is here! There's nothing like being in the live event, but if you can't or don't want to go it's understandable and live coverage via media is great. I personally really like hearing the Univision Deportes guys since they are so very excited about everything going on, and it makes me feel more excited, too.
There was commentary in the New Yorker where the writer surmised that perhaps many Americans don't think football is a "real man's sport" because of the dramatic Oscar-worthy "injury" moments. It's a difference in philosophy, I believe.
Maybe Americans would rather see guys "tough it out" like in American football and especially hockey. In hockey, you pretty much get to fight it out! But again, the nature of the game is different than with football, even though technically it's also about getting the puck/ball into the opposing team's goal.
And as for China, China will only gain traction in football only if there is government and celebrity initiative (the Olympics definitely had this in spades). As with tennis, with Li Na's French Open win suddenly the nation became transfixed with tennis. Football is a team sport, so for this kind of outlier to occur is much more difficult. Unless there was a huge push with government backing, I don't see China promoting football anytime soon. And that's probably fine for them - there are many other sports and arts and initiatives that are available to pursue!
One parting thought: I've always found it strange to have the sudden death penalty kicks when the score is 0-0. It becomes an entirely different game, and while I can understand the need to close up the game and determine a winner, it seems unfair. I'll have to think about alternatives to this dilemma, just for fun :-)
Netherlands beat Brazil with score 3-0. It is too bad for Brazil after a crushing defeat four days ago playing Germany. My prediction was based on Chinese adage: 哀兵必勝. Well, it doesn't work that way this time. Perhaps Brazil team doesn't feel so miserable. Dutch is not that precise in passing ball comparing to German. However, they are good enough to create enough opportunities to score two goals in graceful fashion. The Brazil still missed the key striker Naymer and so the offense lacked '臨門一腳', so critical in scoring. Meanwhile, Silva was in to lead the defense. Alas, he proved not very effective. In fact, he made a foul in the first three minutes by dragging Robben in the penalty box, a no-no mistake. Dutch captain Persie is a fantastic striker. He found the right corner and hit the goal accurately. The goalkeeper guessed it right but couldn't stop the ball. It was simply too fast & too strong to handle. Near the middle of the first half, Dutch went to the right side, rushed to the base line & hauled the ball in front of the goal. The Brazilian defender headed the ball back to the center of the penalty area instead of out of the field. The Dutch player called Blind intercepted the ball & easily shoveled the ball into the goal. The name Blind seems a misnomer as he accurately stole the ball & pushed the ball in beautifully, definitely not blindly. Then came the time near the end of the second half, Robben got the ball, dribbled to the right and then another Dutch racing past him to the base line while Robben passed the ball to him simultaneously. It happened so fast (說時遲,那時快), the ball was near the base line. With the same fashion, the ball was hauled back in front of the goal where another Dutch waiting there, 勁射入網. The performance of the Dutch team on these three goals are superb. Brazil without Naymer is equivalent to attack without goal. They were running, rushing & controlling ball most of the time without creating chances of striking goal. Meanwhile, the Dutch just waited & when they stole the ball, they attacked quickly with long & accurate passes to create holes in Brazil defensive side. Each player of the Brazil team is very good in ball dribbling but they lacked the team spirit & corporation. It is sad to see a soccer machine of world class deteriorates to this state. Like career, there is always up & down. I think Brazil will bounce back. The last two matches may be a fortune in disguise for them if they can learn the lesson from other teams especially German.
The World Cup final ended with Germany beating Argentina 1:0 as predicted. However, Argentina had several chances to get ahead in the first half but failed to score. Messi was pretty much neutralized by the German defense. It was equally true that Muller got neutraized by the Argentine defense. Both team got good offensive unit but it was just tough to put ball in the goal when so many players line up in front of it. It ended up with 0:0 in the regular 90-minute play time. German showed more energy & determination in the extended period and did create more chances to score. Just about 8 minutes before the extended time ended, two of German substitute teamed up and executed a textbook goal that almost sealed the fate of Argentine. German couch sent in the substitutes for some reason and it did work magic. Mario Goetze controlled the ball with his chest and volleyed it into the Argentine goal beautifully. It was Schuerrle, also a substitute, who provided the cross that Goetze controlled so magically.
After the match, it followed with a trophy session & ceremony. You can see & feel the emotions poured out all over the stadium: the agony of defeat & the ecstasy of victory. When you watch the German side, you can not but congratulate them with '人生難得幾回如是狂歡'. When you turn around and watch the Argentine side, you can not but try to comfort them with '留得青山在,不怕沒柴燒. 臥新加嘗膽,還有下一回'.
I watched some video clips of knockout matches & found one of the goal Colombian did by James Rodriguez was almost identical to the one did by the German Mario Gotze yesterday. Get the pass with chest, before the ball touches the ground, just volley the ball into the goal. The sequence is finished within a second and certainly gives no time for goalkeeper to react.
One thing is interesting. Most Brazilians supported German to win over Argentine even they lost 7:1 to German. Per news, Brazilians just don't like Argentine for some reason, perhaps too big a rivalry in the soccer field. It is as if in table-tennis, German beat China in semi-final (7:1) and now Japan & German meet in the final. Which team Chinese are going to root for?
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